Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War


In Back to the Future, John Mearsheimer focuses on the effect of the end of the Cold War on Europe.
The establishment of national security or the non-existence of national security is largely related to the structure of the international system  with the anarchy is the dominant factor, and as a result the future global politics will be characterized by conflict as in the past. According to John Mearsheimer, the end of the Cold War will bring us back to an international system characterized by a multi-polar balance of power, in which nationalism and ethnic rivalry prevail as a prelude to instability and conflict, and in his assessment of the Cold War period he believes that it is a period of peace and stability because of the structure of world powers and the bipolar balance of power. And if it's collapsed, we will return to a great power struggle that has been a dilemma in international relations since the seventeenth century. John Mearsheimer predicts a state of instability and even war in the next 20 years. His vision is based on two basic variables: the survival of US forces in these two regions and the expected shift in regional power structure, based on his belief that the current stability is due to the US military presence in both regions. He also believes that US forces will re-integrate them in the beginning of the next two decades, but under a chaotic international system in which the superpowers are not trying to maximize their power and influence. According to him "the next decade is very likely to be more violent and will see years of turmoil in international politics, and that the end of the Cold War is likely to increase the chances of wars and crises in Europe.” These predictions have been relatively true; Europe has experienced the worst ethnic conflicts of the mid-1990s in the Balkans, and Europe is facing economic crises in Greece now.  He also predicts the emergence of pre-1914 patterns in Europe, saying: "One way to control this is by helping Germany become a nuclear state." He also believes that the proliferation of nuclear weapons will be beneficial for the maintenance of global security. And for him non-nuclear Europe means the inequalities between states would increase and the pacifying effects of nuclear weapons would be lost. He also discussed three counter-arguments. The first one is based on liberal claim and maintains that economic interdependence of the states is more prone to reduce the possibility of conflicts. The second one is based on democratic peace theory claiming that democracies don’t fight each other. The third argument involves a degree of collective self-awareness amongst Europeans.

However, not all Mearsheimer’s predictions were true some are flawed; he has failed to predict the end of the cold war, and also the international system is still unipolar, but assuming that his predictions are true for multipolar, for him the case of multi-polarity has been accompanied by an increase of insecurity; i.e. high risk, Hence; the countries will move in response to nuclear arms, and from his point of view, it would be difficult to manage these files, and therefore the international system would be more prone to violence than the bipolar system. but the reality is otherwise. There are efforts by the United States and its allies to counter this even if it’s selectively, As in the Iranian and North Korean nuclear files. He also argued that 40 years of stability was over and there was a risk that possibility of new wars would increase among European countries, but the opposite had occurred.

In conclusion, since the dramatic rise of Western Europe to the top of the world power in the 19th century, all major world wars have become almost European wars, Including the wars of colonial domination, the wars of colonial rivalry, and the wars of the continent's powers in Europe and beyond. After the end of the Cold War, the last major European wars, the continent seemed to be on its way to a long era of unprecedented peace and prosperity led by the Western bloc. However, Europe is now facing a moment of power struggles that no one expected at the end of the Cold War. Russia is not the Soviet Union and cannot afford a new Cold War, but it is difficult to imagine a major Russian retreat due to its economic and financial pressures no matter how bad it is. However, the West hopes the pressure will lead to Putin's eventual overthrown or forcing him to negotiate about Ukraine due to his weak position. Also, Germany cannot take further steps under Russian policies threatens European stability, it is not surprising if Moscow's current policy continues to make Germany the main European party in the process of balancing with Russia, which will certainly ease the burden on Americans. There is no indication yet of any of these possibilities, but it is certain that the climate of optimism that prevailed after the end of the cold war is also coming to an end. Also, the new world order will no longer be unipolar, because other nations will balance the United States, and so the unipolar system will end.




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